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Wait Until You See What’s Next – What to Expect Moving Forwardįor all the advanced cyber technology and techniques, we haven’t seen anything yet. That will reshape everything from alliances to power dynamics. Anyone with an interest in this conflict can come to the digital table and play. is considering its own cyber retaliation options. For example, the notorious hacktivist group Anonymous has declared its own cyberwar on Russia. While politicians are discussing sanctions, the cyber world has kicked into action. However, unlike previous major conflicts, the world is not standing by. This is now a multiplayer game – The Ukrainian attack has the world’s attention.Critical infrastructure will be the new battleground for industrial cyber attacks. Shutting down a government website is one thing, shutting off the power grid is something entirely different. So, there is no limit to what could be done. There are a few agreements, but since attribution is hard, those are not very enforceable. No boundaries, no borders, no rules – There are no internationally recognized rules of cyberwarfare.There are simply times of higher, more visible activity and impacts. Thus, there is no beginning or end to a cyber campaign. Whether it be quit intrusions that, called advanced persistent threats, or previous warning shots. No timetable for cyber: The cyber part of this war has been waged for years.When things get murky, cyber exploitations thrive. Threats in other countries can use this as a giant distraction to advance their own causes. Other nations can run false flag cyber-attacks. Criminals can carry out their own cyber activity. There is simply too much confusion and activity to run the kinds of forensics you need to identify who, much less from where and how attacks are forming. Now, in Ukraine, you have a massive volley of cyber-attacks that are clouded by the confusion of conventional warfare. This proves politically invaluable when you want to send a message. Put simply, it’s close to impossible to definitively prove that a specific country is behind an attack. The fog of digital war – Nation-states have favored cyber-attacks because of the difficulty in attributing an attack to a particular threat actor or country.Consider what we’ve already seen in the short time of this conflict:
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You can already see drivers and dynamics emerging that will change and accelerate how cyber warfare is conducted. However, embedding cyber-attacks as an integral part of full-scale conventional invasion bring this to a whole new level. The proximity, political dynamics and infrastructure made it an ideal testing ground for new cyber threats, technologies and methodologies. Ukraine has often been a favored target by Russian cyber-attacks. The Reshaping of Cyberwarfare Has Already Started What comes out of that will have much wider and larger implications than this current conflict. Ukraine will be both a battleground and a testing ground for new techniques, methods and technologies. This is as true for atom bombs as it is with cyber attacks. Wartime technologies advance the fastest during wartime.
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What’s significant about the Ukrainian conflict is that it will be a driver for hyper-acceleration and adaptation in industrial cyber warfare. Whether countries are disrupting nuclear power plants, as with the Stuxnet in 2010, or much more recently manipulating GPS systems onboard ships, countries have used cyberattacks to further their political and economic interests. Globally, it’s become part of every nation’s military operation, with billions each year spent on defensive and offensive weaponization of cyber. You can date attacks on Ukrainian back to 2015 when a non-state threat actor named Sanworm devasted their power grid.
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Think of it as ransomware, without the ransom.Ĭyber warfare is not new. Once the attack began, they unleashed data-wiping malware (called HermeticWiper) that is designed to instantly delete anything it infects. DDoS attacks began disabling Ukrainian official websites days before a single soldier set foot across the border. Systems were infiltrated, malware was developed, and attacks plans filled whiteboards in dark offices in Moscow. Well before the bombs started falling in Ukraine, hackers were quietly invading their cyberspace.